Groundwater Equity & Management in Arid Regions
An international research collaboration combining cutting-edge geoscience with socio-economic analysis — securing safe, equitable water for Turkana County's communities on the frontlines of climate change.
A crisis at the intersection of
science, equity & climate
Kenyans at risk from unsafe groundwater
Kenya hosts the most people affected by water scarcity over four decades, with Turkana County at the epicentre — where fluoride reaches nearly four times the WHO guideline, tasteless and odourless, consumed unknowingly for years causing irreversible skeletal fluorosis.
The Invisible Threat: Fluoride
Groundwater F⁻ ranges 0.15–5.9 mg/L in Turkana County. Unlike salinity, fluoride has no taste — communities may drink contaminated water for decades without knowing. Understanding variability drivers is the first step to prevention and safe water access.
Rising Salinity
Saline intrusion, evaporation, and geothermal mixing threaten alluvial aquifers — and high salinity directly triggers fluoride release from sediments, creating dangerous compounding hazards that demand integrated management.
Climate Amplification
Droughts, shifting land use, and excessive groundwater abstraction are projected to further elevate fluoride and salinity concentrations — demanding predictive models to guide climate-resilient resource management for decades ahead.
A Justice Crisis
Water collection falls disproportionately on women and children. Rural communities rely on unimproved sources. GEM treats this as both a science and justice problem — inseparable from each other, requiring integrated solutions.
Interdisciplinary science for
transformational impact
GEM unites world-leading Danish geoscientists with Kenyan researchers, government partners, and a newly established local university to produce knowledge that genuinely changes water governance — in Turkana County and arid regions globally.
Understand the Drivers
Map environmental variables governing groundwater fluoride and salinity patterns across Turkana County using machine learning and geophysical data.
Resolve the Processes
Isolate hydrogeochemical reactions controlling fluoride mobilisation in alluvial aquifers under groundwater–surface water exchange.
Predict the Future
Build next-generation reactive transport models to forecast climate change impacts on groundwater quality over coming decades.
Assess Equity & Welfare
Quantify distributional consequences of water scarcity, ensuring solutions are socially just — not only technically feasible.
Five interconnected
work packages
Environmental Variables Governing Groundwater Quality
Compiles a cutting-edge database for Turkana County integrating groundwater chemistry, geophysics, land use, climate variables, and remote sensing data — then applies machine learning to generate high-resolution prediction maps.
~150 sampling points, TEM profiles, national datasets, and global remote sensing layers
Machine learning feature importance for geological heterogeneity impact on water quality
High-resolution fluoride, salinity, and availability prediction maps across Turkana County
Explainable AI outputs with quantified uncertainty for government decision-making
Hydrogeochemical Processes in Alluvial Aquifers
Two research transects of multi-level monitoring wells — one in urban Lodwar, one near Lake Turkana — enable direct measurement of aquifer dynamics. RCGW leads all chemical sample analysis.
Transect monitoring wells; core sediments for fluoride adsorption experiments
Groundwater–surface water exchange models using MODFLOW6 and PEST
PHREEQC-3 speciation and surface complexation modelling
2D reactive transport models integrating flow and geochemistry
Predicting Net Effects of Climate Change
Uses WP1 and WP2 models to forecast how future climate change, land use shifts, and population growth will affect groundwater quality — the foundation for climate-resilient resource management.
CMIP6 climate scenario identification and future groundwater demand estimation
3D conceptual hydrological baseline model of the Lodwar area
Worst-to-best IPCC projections across 1D and 2D reactive transport models
Net impact quantification: climate change versus other stressors
Socio-Economic Impacts & Water Equity
Assesses how water quality and scarcity affect communities in Turkana County — examining gender-based access patterns, health perceptions, willingness-to-pay for clean water, and distributional consequences.
Household baseline surveys on water access, time-use by gender, and seasonal variability
Community knowledge assessment: water quality, fluoride, salinity, and health links
Choice experiments quantifying willingness-to-pay for treated potable water
Population density maps combined with WP1 outputs for safe groundwater access estimates
Capacity Strengthening & Knowledge Dissemination
Ensures GEM's impact extends far beyond the research team. Three PhD students and one postdoctoral researcher trained under the project, alongside master's students at UoN, TUC, and UCPH.
Three PhD students and one postdoc; research visits to Denmark for Kenyan researchers
Training courses for up to 20 participants prioritising early career researchers
Annual stakeholder meetings: scientists, county government, Water Resources Authority
Community lectures at Turkana County schools and villages; GEM portal on RCGW website
Environmental Variables Governing Groundwater Quality
Compiles a cutting-edge database for Turkana County integrating groundwater chemistry, geophysics, land use, climate variables, and remote sensing data — then applies machine learning to generate high-resolution prediction maps.
Comprehensive database integrating ~150 sampling points, TEM profiles, national datasets, and global remote sensing layers
Machine learning feature importance analysis assessing geological heterogeneity impact on water quality
High-resolution prediction maps of fluoride, salinity, and groundwater availability across Turkana County
Explainable AI outputs with quantified uncertainty to guide stakeholder and government decision-making
Hydrogeochemical Processes in Alluvial Aquifers
Two research transects of multi-level monitoring wells — one in urban Lodwar, one near Lake Turkana — enable direct measurement of aquifer dynamics. RCGW leads all chemical sample analysis across this work package.
Transect monitoring wells using pilot TEM data; core sediments for fluoride adsorption experiments
Groundwater–surface water exchange models using MODFLOW6 and PEST calibration tools
PHREEQC-3 speciation and surface complexation modelling to isolate fluoride release mechanisms
2D reactive transport models integrating flow and geochemistry as interconnected objects
Predicting Net Effects of Climate Change
Uses WP1 and WP2 models to forecast how future climate change, land use shifts, and population growth will affect groundwater — providing the decision-making foundation for climate-resilient resource management.
CMIP6 climate scenario identification and future groundwater demand estimation
3D conceptual hydrological baseline model of the Lodwar area from geological and field data
Worst-to-best IPCC projections across 1D and 2D reactive transport models
Net impact quantification of climate change versus other stressors using baseline uncertainty comparison
Socio-Economic Impacts & Water Equity
Assesses how water quality and scarcity affect communities in Turkana County — examining gender-based access patterns, health perceptions, willingness-to-pay for clean water, and distributional consequences of water insecurity.
Household baseline surveys on water source access, time-use by gender, and seasonal variability
Community knowledge assessment: links between water quality, fluoride, salinity, and health
Choice experiments quantifying willingness-to-pay for treated potable water and welfare effects
Population density maps combined with WP1 outputs to estimate safe groundwater access
Capacity Strengthening & Knowledge Dissemination
Ensures GEM's impact extends far beyond the research team. Three PhD students and one postdoctoral researcher trained under the project, alongside master's students at UoN, TUC, and UCPH.
Three PhD students and one postdoc co-supervised; research visits to Denmark for Kenyan researchers
Training courses for up to 20 participants, prioritising early career researchers across Kenya
Annual stakeholder meetings bridging scientists, county government, and Water Resources Authority
Community lectures at schools and villages in Turkana County; GEM portal on RCGW website
An interdisciplinary
international consortium
GEM unites research institutions, government bodies, and a newly established local university — combining world-leading expertise with irreplaceable indigenous knowledge of Turkana County.
Leads overall project management, WP1 and WP3. World-leading expertise in groundwater modelling with extensive international project experience across Europe, Africa and Asia. GEUS provides the scientific leadership and administrative backbone of GEM.
RCGW's Role in GEM
The Regional Centre on Groundwater Resources plays a multi-faceted and distinctive role — from leading an entire work package to anchoring scientific laboratory capacity and community outreach across Turkana County.
Capacity Strengthening & Knowledge Dissemination
RCGW coordinates the project's entire capacity-building and outreach engine — from training the next generation of Kenyan groundwater researchers to educating communities across Turkana County.
- Training courses of up to 20 participants, prioritising early career researchers and project partners across Kenya
- Annual stakeholder group meetings creating a science-policy dialogue platform for government and communities
- Community lectures at schools and villages in Turkana County, targeting children, youth, and marginalised groups
- Facilitating South-South collaboration between Turkana University College and University of Nairobi
- Hosting and maintaining the GEM project web portal on the RCGW website for open-access knowledge sharing
Chemical Sample Analysis
RCGW leads all chemical analysis of water samples — inorganic chemistry and stable isotopes — collected across field campaigns, following international QA/QC protocols. The data quality produced is foundational to all scientific conclusions across WP2.
Digital Knowledge Hub
RCGW hosts the GEM project web portal on its institutional website — serving as the publicly accessible repository for research outputs, training materials, and datasets, in line with FAIR data principles and open-access commitments.
Stakeholder Engagement
Co-organises stakeholder workshops in Nairobi and Lodwar, bridging scientists with county government water offices and the Water Resources Authority. RCGW's existing Turkana County network is invaluable for field activities and knowledge uptake.
Archive Data & Co-Supervision
Contributes essential archive data from Turkana County — geophysical surveys, borehole data, hydrogeochemical datasets from prior programmes — and co-supervises PhD and master students at partner institutions.
Five outcomes that will
reshape water governance
Enhanced Groundwater Resource Management
Decision-makers gain probability maps of potable groundwater availability, enabling knowledge-informed protection and climate-resilient resource planning.
Baseline for Sustainable Aquifer Management
A rigorous scientific baseline for managing freshwater aquifers — informing abstraction rates, drilling locations, and quality protection measures.
Improved Groundwater Quality Resilience
Knowledge-informed decisions on abstraction and irrigation development protect aquifer quality against climate change amplification.
Reduced Inequity via Climate Action
Socio-economic analysis reveals distributional consequences, enabling targeted interventions to reduce burdens on women, children, and marginalised communities.
Increased Awareness & Research Capacity
A new generation of Kenyan researchers trained; communities informed; a lasting platform for South-South knowledge exchange established.
Contributing to the UN Sustainable Development Goals
Five years of
discovery & impact
Reach the
GEM consortium
About GEM & Open Access
GEM is a Danida Fellowship Centre funded research project (File No. DFC 25-08-GEUS), financed by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Activities commenced 1 April 2025 and run through 31 December 2029.
The project is committed to open access publication of all research results. Data, outputs, and training materials will be freely available through the RCGW project web portal, in compliance with FAIR data principles and IP Rights policies.
GEM findings are directly applicable to arid regions across Africa and Asia. We welcome collaboration enquiries from researchers, NGOs, and government agencies working on water security.